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Investor Insights: How Is This Recession Different From Past Recessions?

“How is this recession different from past recessions?” Every recession has common traits to it, but they’re not all the same. You can’t look back on three or four recessions and say, it’s exactly like this one. And some of the knobs that I look at, I’ve been looking at those cause I’m trying to twist the knobs to make a good investment, my decision myself, but in this recession, we’ve added two or three other knobs that I’ve never seen turned before. Generally in a recession. If you have, you know, 20% unemployment, or 15% unemployment like we do right now, I would absolutely say unequivocally, if people have less jobs, they have less ability to pay their rent. They have less ability to make the mortgages. They’re going to have to sell. And if you have more supply coming up, more people selling their homes and the same amount of demand, then prices are going to drop.

And that would be my normal expectation. But what’s happening right now, which is throwing me for a loop, and I think throwing a lot of people for a loop is all the government intervention. You have government intervention in the fact that landlords cannot evict tenants for nonpayment. You have mortgage companies who cannot begin or start or even talk about foreclosing on a property through the end of the year. And you have all this government stimulus. So people who are unemployed are getting, or some people are making more money now in this economy than they were making before, while they were working! Well, none of those things have ever happened before in a recession. We have the stock market taking a dip and then doing this huge shoot up in the air. And we had, when COVID hit, kind of a stagnancy where people weren’t selling homes because no one was going out and doing anything, but now it’s going to open back up and real estate prices are actually increasing.

There’s actually not that much inventory. There’s more people buying than selling. And I think everybody’s wondering, “Did we miss it? Is there no… is there not going to be a drop?” And I believe that there will be. I think that’s when the government stimulus stops. I think that there absolutely is going to be a buying opportunity. I just don’t think it’s going to be until, you know, February, March of next year, just beginning, and I think it’s going to be, really good buying opportunities will happen. Third and fourth quarter of next year, 2021. So I, I don’t see a real estate buying opportunity, for low prices here in the next two to three months. I think it’s more six to nine months away.


Northwest Private Lending Inc NMLS # 1522364 // ML # 5496 is based in Portland, Oregon. NW Private Lending is an Equal Opportunity Hard Money Lender. We provide quick acess to capital for borrowers, real estate agents and mortgage brokers in Oregon and Washington. NW Private Lending is a collateral based lender focusing on bridge loans, fix and flip or rehab loans, commercial loans and non-owner occupied real estate investment properties.

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